Wednesday, February 16, 2011

The Next Country to Topple Its Leader? Check out the Bookmaker's Odds

Paddy Power is apparently Ireland's biggest and most successful bookmaker. It operates both a retail and an online/telephone division and has a chain of licensed betting offices located throughout Ireland and in the UK.

On February 16, the Telegraph reported that the bookmaker has Yemen leading the pack as the next country to topple its leader.  It also installed Jordan at 9/4 as the second favorite to fall with Algeria at 7/2. Today, Yemen's odds remain at 15/8/ but changed to 11/4 for Jordan, with Algeria and Morocco tied at 4/1.   Bahrain, which is facing Egypt-style unrest, was called a good bet by the Telegraph and its 8/1 a "generous odds." The more oppressive regimes of Saudi Arabia and Syria have been given longer odds of 20/1, although both countries have seen protests.  The odds remain at 20/1 for both countries as of this writing.

Paddy Power's odds applies to the next country from the list below to have a prime minister/president/monarch/state leader step down due to public protests, according to its website. It must be reported by Sky News, and the bookmaker's decision is final in settlement.

15/8 Yemen

11/4 Jordan

4/1 Algeria

4/1 Morocco

8/1 Bahrain

8/1 Libya

12/1 Iran

16/1 Sudan

16/1 Iraq

20/1 Saudi Arabia

20/1 Syria

Fractional odds are the traditional odds you see in the bookmaker window and are used here.  You simply treat them like fractions. If you divide the first number by the second, you will get a multiplier. For example, 20/1 means that whatever you stake on this bet you will receive 20 times your stake back if you win. So, $100 on a 20/1 bet will give you $2000 winnings. For $100 on 15/8 you just need to divide 15 by 8, giving you a multiplier of 1.875. Therefore if you stake $100 at a 15/8 bet you will return winnings of $187.50.

Apparently, operating out of Cyprus had calculated the odds much earlier than Paddy Power. Called the tackiest press release here for turning real-life drama into sport, the bookmaker also placed Yemen on top of the pack. 


NoDoubleStandards said...


hannah said...

Interesting, this doesn't line up with the betting pool among my friends at all.